Yann LeCun out of Meta by EOY 2025?
97
1kṀ30k
resolved Nov 20
Resolved
N/A

  • Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market to N/A due to uncertainty about the exact date if Yann LeCun leaves Meta around the year-end boundary (Dec 31st/Jan 1st). The creator will undo the N/A resolution if a more precise departure date is reported later (before approximately Feb 2026) that clearly falls on one side of the boundary or the other.

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Isn't today's post on Facebook a kind of practical Yes?

I’d lean NO for reasons Ziddletwix explained but this is clearly an edge case and not worth it so I’m N/Aing. Will undo N/A if it is reported later on (but before eg feb 2026) that there is a more precise date he left on that isnt either dec 31st or jan 1st or somewhere in between

@Bayesian If he leaves "somewhere in between" December 31st and January 1st, we will have much bigger concerns.

wtf my trading profits

Darn edge cases. I guess I would count "until the end of the year" as qualifying for "out ... by EOY", with my lean coming less from the technical end date relative to midnight Dec 31st, and more from a public announcement of leaving meaning that one is mostly "out" in spirit already.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@Bayesian Does this mean resolve yes? He said in a linkedin post "I’m sticking around Meta until the end of the year."
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7397020300451749888/

@prismatic taken literally, it seems straightforward that sticking around until the end of the year implies he does not leave Meta within 2025? Like that’s exactly what the phrase means—he is sticking around for all of 2025.

It’s entirely possible that he’s being imprecise with his language here, and he has some last day in December before leaving (and he’s just being informal in how describes it in the LinkedIn post). But I don’t see how that post would be evidence for YES

Surely you should do it from his last time at work. If he doesn’t work in January, he was out by eoy

Consider positions with a yearly term. If there was a market for “person out by EOY”, according to by “last time at work”, every member would always be out by EOY. I don’t think that makes sense—they served their full yearly term, they were not out of the position before EOY.

Trying to confirm last date of employment is also tricky due to potential vacation time or etc. this may be fairly ambiguous as we don’t know the details of how yann’s contract. If he says something about “my last day is Dec 30”, then totally fair it’s a YES. I don’t see how “I am sticking around until the end of the year” could by itself imply he is necessarily out before the end of the year.

https://www.ft.com/content/c586eb77-a16e-4363-ab0b-e877898b70de
"LeCun has told associates he will leave the Silicon Valley group in the coming months, according to people familiar with the conversations."

> coming months
sounds likely to be after EOY 2025

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Bayesian add topics?

@jim done

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