Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) | Manifold

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

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2030

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Prediction #4 from:
My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander

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Related questions

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?

Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Will Open AI ‘collapse’ in the next two years?

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