If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

344

17kṀ160k

2200

15%

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

13%

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

11%

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

10%

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Other

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

AIs never develop coherent goals

1.4%

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

1.2%

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

1.2%

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

1.2%

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

1.2%

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

1.1%

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence with user-submitted answers. An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

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