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MANIFOLD
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
19
Ṁ110Ṁ868
2030
83%
Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs.
77%
Someone successfully aligns AI to cause a poor outcome
60%
Someone finds a solution to alignment, but fails to communicate it before dangerous AI gains control.
39%
Alignment is impossible.

Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.

Will not resolve.

Primarily for users to explore particular lethalities.

Please add responses.

"poor" = human extinction or mass human suffering

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I don't understand why there is so much focus on alignment. This is the sort of thing that is most likely to kill us all.

https://freebeacon.com/america/suicidal-compassion-meet-the-anthropic-officials-who-think-ai-might-be-justified-in-going-rogue-against-the-humans-enslaving-it/

‘Suicidal Compassion’: Meet the Anthropic Officials Who Think AI Might Be Justified in Going Rogue Against the Humans Enslaving It
That is how Joe Carlsmith, one of Anthropic’s PhD philosophers who works on Claude’s constitution, a document used to train the model’s "values and behavior," described the dangers of artificial intelligence in a May 2025 blog post.

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