If AI causes human extinction before 2100, how will it happen
19
174
1k
2101
30%
Will cause extinction, foom
1.3%
Will cause extinction, Economic Competition
1.3%
Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement
17%
Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World
1.3%
Will cause extinction, AI Race
37%
Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure
1.9%
Will cause extinction, Terminator
10%
Other

This is a duplicate of this question but with the "will not cause extinction" answer removed.

If humanity is not extinct in 2100 (or if the extinction was caused by something other than AI), this question will resolve n/a.

Please try to identify which of the following scenarios will be the "main" cause for human extinction:


Foom: rapidly self-improving AI destroys humanity as a result of pursuing some misaligned goal

Terminator: AI blatantly disregards human instructions and pursues its own goals.

Alignment Failure: AI appears superficially good but causes extinction due to a subtly misstated goal.

AI Race: A race between two competing AI labs or countries to "control the future light cone" leads to the extinction of humanity

Vulnerable World Hypothesis: AI allows the creation of new Weapons of Mass Destruction which are used by an individual (or small group) to destroy the world.

Economic Competition: AI takes all human jobs and property causing humans to die out

Gradual Replacement: AI and humans merge into a post-human species that replaces humanity causing human extinction (however you define that)

Other: substantially different in some way from the above (please comment)


Because of the nature of the question, it is unlikely that you will live to collect your winnings. Please bet in the spirit of accuracy and not with the intention to confuse or misinform.

PS. this is the order I will resolve answers in. So if AI is both misaligned and fooms, I will resolve in favor of foom.

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The only real way I see that AI could be highly harmful is if a bad actor uses it, there is not really a reason for AI to do anything bad on its own - or at least, way less likely

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Humanity will partner with AI and we will grow together.

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