This market resolves to YES if the official monthly minimum wage in Venezuela is increased to an amount strictly greater than 40,000 VES (Sovereign Bolívares) on or before May 1, 2026.
Resolution criteria:
The increase must be officially announced by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez or officially published in the Official Gazette (Gaceta Oficial) on or before May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM (Caracas time).
The 40,000 VES threshold refers exclusively to the base salary (salario mínimo base). Government bonuses, such as the Cestaticket or Bono de Guerra Económica, do not count toward this total.
If the currency is redenominated before the deadline, the mathematically equivalent value in the new currency will be used to resolve the market.
Resolves to NO if the base minimum wage remains at or below 40,000 VES by the deadline.
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Just to clarify the resolution: While the government recently announced an increase of the 'Comprehensive Minimum Income' (Ingreso Mínimo Integral) to $240, this was done entirely by increasing bonuses (Cestaticket and Bono de Guerra Económica). The actual base minimum wage (salario mínimo) was not increased and remains well below the 40,000 VES threshold. As explicitly stated in the market's resolution criteria, bonuses do not count toward the total. Therefore, the market resolves to NO.
@CaneloCanelo it's surprising it wasn't mentioned in the article and instead was mentioned as a direct wage. I definitely need to do more research. If anybody lost their mana due to this, you can take a refund from me.
@100Anonymous In Venezuela, the salary situation is not as straight as in other countries
You can check this new market
https://manifold.markets/CaneloCanelo/when-will-the-official-gazette-deta?r=Q2FuZWxvQ2FuZWxv
It's 130 per month at the moment, the government is emphasising a "cautious", "responsible", "inflation-aware" increase, 40,000+ per month doesn't seem like that.