Resolves YES if Machado serves in some leadership role in the Venezuelan government by the end of 2027.

I would count basically any role that indicates she is serving in a leadership position, even something like "Advisor to the President."

The "purpose" of this market is to roughly predict whether the government that succeeds Maduro would be another Madurist government or an opposition-led government.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

Also, context:
https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/the-nobel-committee-is-hungry-for