Resolution criteria

The market will resolve to YES if, before September 1, 2026 (11:59 PM Moscow Time), any major Ozon fulfillment center or logistics facility is confirmed to have been destroyed or catastrophically damaged by a drone (UAV) attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Definitions & Specifics:

• "Major Ozon fulfillment center/logistics facility": Warehouse listed on https://seller-edu.ozon.ru/libra/fbo/warehouses/adresa-skladov-fbo?__rr=2#%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1%8B under rubric of "Склады"
  Local pickup points (PZVs) and minor local courier hubs are excluded.

• "Destroyed or catastrophically damaged": To qualify, the drone strike must cause significant destruction, such as a major fire, explosion, or structural collapse that:

  1. Destroys a substantial portion of the facility (at least 20% of the building's floor area or its stored inventory), or

  2. Renders the warehouse entirely inoperable, forcing a total suspension of shipping/receiving operations at that facility for at least 7 consecutive days.

• Excluded: Minor drone strikes that cause only cosmetic, superficial, or easily repairable damage (e.g., broken windows, minor roof punctures, or localized fires that are quickly extinguished) where operations resume within less than 7 days will resolve the market as NO.

• Source of Verification: The strike and the resulting level of damage must be confirmed by credible international, Russian, or Ukrainian news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Meduza, RBC, or Kommersant), or via official statements from local regional governors, emergency services (MChS), or Ozon itself.

Background

In mid-July 2026, Ukrainian forces launched a series of long-range drone strikes targeting several massive logistics centers belonging to Wildberries—Russia's largest online retailer and Ozon's chief competitor. Strikes successfully hit major facilities in St. Petersburg, Elektrostal (Moscow region), Krasnodar, Nevinnomyssk, and Crimea, causing severe fires and destroying significant warehouse capacity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky justified the campaign by claiming these e-commerce giants help transport dual-use electronics and other sanctioned goods to support the Russian military.

As Russia's second-largest e-commerce operator, Ozon manages a sprawling network of over 50 large-scale fulfillment centers across the country. In June 2026, Ozon quietly revised its terms of service to exempt itself from compensating sellers for inventory lost to war-related damage, which sparked significant concern among sellers that Ozon's facilities might be targeted next in Ukraine's ongoing logistics campaign.