From market creation. Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, U.S. federal authorities impose a temporary closure or significant restriction of civilian airspace over a U.S. city due to a drone-related security threat.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (1 traders, as of Feb 12, 2026).

Will Trump administration restrict civilian airspace over a US city due to a drone-related security threat before 2027?

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

5% chance

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

28% chance

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

7% chance

Will drones become restricted similarly to guns in the US by 2030?

21% chance

Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?

18% chance

Will the US pass federal legislation with the purpose of increasing the country's TFR by the end of 2026?

51% chance

Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?

59% chance

If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

14% chance

Will Dulles International Airport be renamed to include Trump by the end of 2028?

12% chance

"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028

31% chance