The Trump administration has indicated that it could attack Mexican cartels, including the use of drone strikes. Will this happen?

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029:

• The United States military or intelligence agencies (CIA, etc.) conduct at least one drone strike targeting suspected cartel members, facilities, or operations on Mexican soil

• The strike must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or verified by multiple credible news sources

• The target must be specifically related to cartel activities (drug trafficking, organized crime)

This market resolves to NO if no such drone strike occurs before January 1, 2029.

• Drone surveillance operations, which are already occurring with Mexico's permission, do not count as strikes

• Military operations conducted by Mexican forces with U.S. intelligence support would not count

• Joint operations would count only if U.S. forces directly conduct the strike