Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?
17
1kṀ943
2029
25%
chance

• Data Centre Hosting AI: A facility used for housing computer systems, where at least 50% of computational activities are verifiably related to AI. This includes research, development, deployment, and commercial uses of AI technologies.

• Verification of AI Activities: Public records, corporate statements, or reputable news sources must verify that the facility’s primary function involves AI-related activities.

• Physically Attacked: Any intentional act causing material damage or disruption to the facility’s operations. An event qualifies as an “attack” if it leads to at least one of the following: 1) more than 24 hours of operational downtime, 2) destruction of physical hardware, 3) incurred repair costs exceeding $50,000. This criterion refers specifically to physical attacks and does not include cyberattacks or other non-physical forms of assault.

• Attribution of Attack: The attacking entity does not need to be formally identified. However, there must be a widespread consensus, supported by reputable news reports or expert opinion, that the attack was undertaken with the aim of limiting the risks associated with AI.

• Risks of AI: The term “risks of AI” refers to widely acknowledged concerns about AI, including but not limited to ethical considerations, job displacement, and data privacy.

• Geographical Scope: This prediction market question applies on a global scale, encompassing data centres located in any country or territory.

• Additional Criteria: For the prediction to be considered ‘Yes,’ verifiable evidence (e.g., manifesto, public statement, or digital trail) must clearly indicate that the attack aimed to address the “risks of AI.”

• Before December 31, 2029: The event must occur prior to 11:59 PM UTC on this date.

• Market Resolution:

• In the event of an attack meeting all specified criteria by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2029, this market resolves to ‘Yes.’

• In the event of no such attack by this deadline, this market resolves to ‘No.’

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