Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between August 24, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is confirmed to have been hit by at least one drone, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or missile.

• Definition of "Hit": A drone or missile must successfully strike, explode on, or cause physical damage to any structure, launch pad, runway, or ground area within the official perimeter of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome (located in Mirny, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia).

• Interceptions & Debris: If an incoming drone or missile is intercepted by air defenses and the falling debris causes no material damage or fires inside the cosmodrome, it does not count as a "hit." If falling debris from an interception causes verified physical damage or a fire to cosmodrome infrastructure, this will qualify as a "hit."

• Verification Sources: Resolution will be based on credible, publicly available evidence. This includes official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian military officials, or independent analyses from reputable organizations (such as the Institute for the Study of War) alongside verified satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).

• Timing: Only attacks occurring after August 24, 2026, count toward resolution. Any past events or strikes prior to this date do not qualify.

• If no confirmed hit occurs by the end of 2026, or if reports of a hit cannot be verified by credible sources by January 7, 2027, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

The Plesetsk Cosmodrome, located in Russia's northern Arkhangelsk Oblast, is the country's primary military spaceport. It is a critical hub for launching military satellites, testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) like the Sarmat, and deploying the Rassvet low-orbit communications constellation, Russia's equivalent to Starlink.

On August 23, 2026, Ukrainian long-range drones reportedly reached Arkhangelsk Oblast for the first time—approximately 1,900 km from the border—targeting strategic sites in the region. Although Russian authorities claimed that air defenses intercepted the threat, the event highlighted the growing reach of Ukrainian strike capabilities. Roscosmos also previously reported a drone attack attempt near the facility in March 2026.

Due to a degree of subjectivity in resolution criteria, I will not trade in this market.