Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins. It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q). Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
The official data source for this calculation is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) series: "Real gross domestic product per capita," NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX), tracked on FRED (series A939RX0Q048SBEA).
Key resolution details from the bet agreement:
Peak-relative measurement: Growth is measured relative to the previous all-time peak (up to Q-4), which excludes "recession rebound" base effects.
Per capita definition: The denominator counts human beings only. If official statistics ever count AI systems in the population, the human population will still be used.
Timing of settlement: The market resolves to YES immediately as soon as any BEA release shows a qualifying fast-growth quarter. If no qualifying quarter has appeared by the time the BEA first publishes its 2033Q4 estimate (expected early 2034), the market will resolve to NO.
Close calls: If a release shows peak-relative growth between 14.5% and 15.5%, resolution will wait and rely on the BEA's third estimate for that quarter.
Later data revisions after settlement do not reopen the resolution.
If the BEA abandons the series or it becomes otherwise ambiguous, the market will resolve in accordance with the decision of the neutral third-party arbiter chosen by the bet's participants, or based on the creator's best effort to apply the spirit of the bet.
Background
In August 2026, London School of Economics (LSE) economist Benjamin Moll and several co-signers finalized a high-stakes bet on the near-term economic impacts of artificial intelligence.
The parties and their respective stakes are:
Fast-growth side ($60,000 total stake): William MacAskill ($10,000), Samuel Albanie ($25,000), and Tom Cohen ($25,000).
No-fast-growth side ($240,000 total stake): Benjamin Moll ($40,000) and Andrew Ho ($200,000).
The bet represents a 4:1 ratio, implying a 20% baseline probability from the participants that AI will drive unprecedented, explosive macroeconomic growth in the U.S. by 2033.
1,000