AI factories before 2030? [Remy Gangrien Vs. AI 2027 $10,000 bet]

1kṀ7590

2029

18%

chance

ALL

The context of this market is in the following tweet thread:

The resolution criteria of this market are identical of that of the bet:

If by 2029, there is an AI that can build and operate a factory that produces novel and human-competitive technology, e.g. akin to a Tesla or SpaceX factory, the bet will resolve in Daniel’s favour. The AI is free to use human labour. As long as the AI(s) is clearly the prime agent behind the construction of the factory, the bet resolves in Daniel’s favour. This will be judged by @ScottAlexander , or anyone else Daniel elects to act as judge at the time.

The bet was agreed to at a rate of 100:1, meaning at those odds this market would be a bit below 1%.

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Will you resolve this market based solely on Scott's resolution?

@MingCat I’ve edited the market description to make that clearer, but yes it resolves the same way as the bet. If hypothetically they were all fine midway to transfer resolution responsibilities to someone else I would just defer to these changes