Background

• Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. Source.

• Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. Source.

• On Twitter, they agreed to a bet. Tweet thread.

• Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"

Bet

If:

• By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

• OR by January 1, 2043, world primary energy consumption exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

Market resolves YES. Otherwise market resolves NO. For borderline cases I will use my best judgement after weighing the available evidence.