Background
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. Source.
Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. Source.
On Twitter, they agreed to a bet. Tweet thread.
Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
Bet
If:
By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
OR by January 1, 2043, world primary energy consumption exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Market resolves YES. Otherwise market resolves NO. For borderline cases I will use my best judgement after weighing the available evidence.
1,000@RemNi I don't see how it's possible to more than double energy generation in a year with near term technologies. It would require something like cheap, miniaturised and safe fusion reactors being mass produced.