Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
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On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),
> OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.
I replied,
> I agree to this bet.
This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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