Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
48
2kṀ4762
2300
96%
chance
On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140), > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet. I replied, > I agree to this bet. This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
AI
Robin Hanson
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Robin Hanson get AGI-pilled in 2025?
33% chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
7% chance
Sam Altman right about AGI by end of 2025?
19% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
60% chance
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?
5% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
41% chance
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
By when will we have AGI?
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
76% chance
Sort by:

Hanson insisting on EMs is a bizarre denial of evidence

Dudes will literally write hundreds of pages about “fake humans” to act out their master-slave fantasy

It’s more like 🐙 will dominate the labor supply before “emulated brains”

One of the worst ideas of all time

At the current market price, Robin is winning.

kind of wack to commit your descendants to it though

@L pretty sure in no western countries it is legal

People are also trading

Will Robin Hanson get AGI-pilled in 2025?
33% chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
7% chance
Sam Altman right about AGI by end of 2025?
19% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
60% chance
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?
5% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
41% chance
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
By when will we have AGI?
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
76% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules