Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028
Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
1,000
3.00How do you imagine Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? If he doesn't get the nomination in 2024, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028? If he gets the nomination in 2024, but loses the election, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028? If he wins the election in 2024, then how likely is he to get the nomination in 2028 at the end of his second term as President of the U.S.?
@LukeHanks the outcome "Trump gets nominated in 2024, loses, and gets nominated again in 2028" seems reasonable to me. Not particularly likely, but certainly reasonable.
@HankyUSA It's unlikely, but isn't it exactly what happened this year? He lost in 2020 and is coming back as the nominee for 2024. The main reason that it seems unlikely is that we'd think surely the Republican Party would learn their lesson and finally move on if he lost the general election twice in a row. That, and the fact that if he doesn't get elected this year, he'll probably have been convicted of multiple crimes come 2028.
@HankyUSA He wins the Presidency and democratic backsliding occurs similar to how Putin did it in Russia.
Russia was somewhat free around 2000, and then Putin shuffled around positions and intimidated the press so that every election after about a few years was never in doubt. Trump is masterful at intimidating the press and, like Putin, would purge the bureaucracy of Democrats on day one.
@SteveSokolowski I don't think Donald Trump is "masterful at intimidating the press". He's tried but mostly failed. If freedom of the press keeps eroding in the U.S. then perhaps he or someone else could achieve something like Putin did, but I don't think we've reached that point yet.