Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially inaugurated as the President of the United States on January 20, 2029. The resolution will be based on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and reported by reputable news organizations.

Background

J.D. Vance: Born on August 2, 1984, in Middletown, Ohio, J.D. Vance is the current Vice President of the United States, serving under President Donald Trump since 2025. He gained national attention with his 2016 memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," which detailed his upbringing in a working-class family. Vance was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, representing Ohio, and served from 2023 to 2025 before becoming Vice President. (britannica.com)

Marco Rubio: Marco Rubio is the current Secretary of State and has previously served as a U.S. Senator from Florida from 2011 to 2025. He sought the Republican nomination for president in 2016, losing to Donald Trump. Rubio has been mentioned as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election. (en.wikipedia.org)

Other: This option encompasses any individual not explicitly listed who may be elected as President in 2028.

鲁比奥: This is the Chinese transliteration for Marco Rubio.

张三丰: This name refers to a legendary Chinese Taoist priest and martial artist from the Yuan and Ming dynasties. It is unlikely that this individual will be a candidate in the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

Considerations

• Eligibility: Candidates must meet the constitutional requirements to serve as President of the United States, including being a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and having resided in the U.S. for at least 14 years.

• Political Landscape: The political environment leading up to the 2028 election may influence potential candidates' decisions to run and their chances of success.

• Emerging Candidates: New political figures may emerge as viable candidates as the election approaches, potentially affecting the dynamics of the race.