Resolves as YES if Emmanuel Macron becomes the leader of the European Union before January 1st 2040.

Resolution criteria

What “leader” means (any of these count)

• Head of state or head of government of the European Union or its successor polity (even if largely ceremonial), e.g., President, Prime Minister, Monarch/King/Emperor, Supreme/Paramount Leader, Regent, or military ruler (de facto or de jure).

• Top EU institutional chief whose role is commonly regarded as the EU’s primary political leadership, including President of the European Commission or President of the European Council (or any future office that replaces/combines them into the EU’s apex executive).

• Member of a collective top executive (e.g., co-presidency, triumvirate) where each member is officially a head of state/government of the EU/successor. Macron being one of those members counts.

Duration: any non-zero period after formally assuming or being widely reported to have assumed the role counts, even if interim/acting or later annulled.

What “European Union” means

• The European Union as currently constituted, or any clear successor polity that is the principal continuation of the EU by name change, constitutional refounding, merger, or transformation (e.g., “European Federation,” “United States of Europe,” “European Empire,” etc.).

• Successor status is satisfied if most current EU member states and/or core EU institutions are carried forward, or if reputable sources/official communications describe the new polity as the EU’s legal/institutional continuation.

Evidence required to resolve YES

• One of:

  • An official announcement (EU/successor institution or constitutional instrument), or

  • At least two reputable, independent news outlets clearly stating that Macron has assumed an office meeting the “leader” definition above.

• The assumption of office must occur before 00:00:00 UTC on January 1, 2040.

  • Election/appointment alone isn’t enough if the swearing-in/assumption is explicitly scheduled on or after January 1, 2040.

Explicit inclusions (examples that would resolve YES)

• Macron becomes President of the European Commission or President of the European Council.

• Macron becomes Head of State (President/Monarch/Emperor/Regent) or Head of Government (PM/Chancellor) of an EU-successor federation.

• Macron becomes supreme military ruler of the EU/successor via coup/junta and is widely recognized as exercising the highest political authority.

• Macron becomes one of multiple co-leaders at the apex of the EU/successor’s executive.

Explicit exclusions (would NOT resolve YES)

• Macron remains or becomes leader of a single member state (e.g., President/PM of France) without holding an EU-level apex office.

• Holding or chairing sub-apex EU roles (e.g., rotating Council of the EU presidency by a member state, Eurogroup chair, agency head, ECB President, European Parliament President alone) unless that role is clearly reconstituted as the EU’s top political leadership.

• Being a party leader, influential power broker, or “kingmaker” without holding an office covered under “What ‘leader’ means.”

Name/personhood clarifications

• “Emmanuel Macron” refers to the individual commonly known as Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron (DOB 1977). Legal name or title changes, or acquisition of noble/imperial styles, do not affect eligibility.

Edge cases & tie-breakers

• Interim/acting leadership counts upon taking office.

• If multiple entities claim to be the EU’s successor, count the one with clearer institutional continuity and/or wider international recognition. If two rival entities exist, a role atop either still counts if reputable sources treat it as the EU’s principal successor.

• If Macron is elected/appointed but prevented from taking office until after the deadline, resolves NO.

• If Macron holds a qualifying role at any time before the deadline, resolves YES even if later removed.

• If status is genuinely ambiguous, resolution waits until facts settle; the resolver will follow the Evidence required section above.

Resolution source

• Resolver will use official EU/successor documents and major independent outlets to verify title, assumption of office, and timing (UTC).