Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron begins a third term as President of France before January 1, 2040. The term must be officially recognized and commenced within this timeframe. Verification will be based on official announcements from the French government or reputable news sources.

Background

As of July 2025, Emmanuel Macron is serving his second consecutive term as President of France, which began in May 2022 and is set to conclude in 2027. The French Constitution, amended in 2008, limits the president to two consecutive five-year terms. This restriction means Macron is ineligible to run for a third consecutive term in 2027. However, the Constitution does not prevent a former president from seeking office again after a hiatus. Therefore, Macron could potentially run for a third term in the 2032 or 2037 elections, provided he is not serving consecutive terms. (en.wikipedia.org)

Macron has publicly criticized the two-term limit, referring to it as "damnable bullshit," indicating his dissatisfaction with the restriction. (politico.eu) Despite this, there have been no official moves to amend the Constitution to allow for more than two consecutive terms.

Considerations

• Constitutional Amendments: Any change to the term limit would require a constitutional amendment, a complex process involving approval from both houses of Parliament or a national referendum.

• Political Climate: Macron's ability to secure a third term would depend on the political landscape, his popularity, and the emergence of potential successors or challengers.

• Precedents: No French president has served non-consecutive terms in the modern era, making such a scenario unprecedented.