The United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31st, 2020, after a period of negotiation and uncertainty. Since then, both parties have continued to negotiate and establish new trade agreements. However, some in the UK remain deeply divided over the decision to leave, and there is ongoing debate about the benefits and drawbacks of rejoining the EU.
This question will resolve positively if by December 31st, 2040, the United Kingdom is a full member of the European Union. If the UK is not a full member of the EU by that date, I
will resolve negatively.
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takeoff.watch forecast: 14%. Burnham has opened the door to rejoining, but membership by 2040 needs Labour to pledge it, win in 2029, win a referendum, and the EU to complete accession before a 2034 change of government. Each step is uncertain, so the chain gives roughly 14%.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
