Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
closes 2026

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15621/macron-no-longer-president-before-2027/ In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/). This move has sparked [nationwide protests](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65057249) and led to some of the worst street violence in recent years. The reform aims to raise the minimum retirement age from [62 to 64](https://www.nytimes.com/article/france-pension-strikes-macron-explainer.html) to improve the financial sustainability of the French pension system. Strikes and demonstrations have caused widespread disruption in France, with at least [one million](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165759889/more-than-1-million-demonstrate-across-france-against-pension-reforms) people participating in protests at one point. Macron's approval rating has dropped as low as [28%](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230322-macron-breaks-silence-on-france-s-bitter-pension-battle-the-key-takeaways), as two-thirds of the French population oppose the law. As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/b78f2a89-1062-4423-a4ba-fb4cdc56c683) points out: > French anger transcends pensions and Macron’s high-handedness. There’s a generalised, long-term rage against the state and its embodiment, the president. Some of the protestors also [chanted](https://www.commondreams.org/news/macron-resign-french-protests-intensify-over-attempt-to-force-retirement-age-hike) “Macron demission” (Macron resign), raising the stakes for a continued presidential tenure. Because this is already Macron’s second term, making him the [first president since the creation of the Fifth Republic to be reelected](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/22/why-is-it-so-unusual-for-a-french-president-to-win-re-election), he will not be able to stand for re-election. As such, Macron’s tenure ends in 2027 after the maximum tenure of five years. However, there are concerns about whether Macron will be able to govern effectively for the remainder of this term and may choose to resign before 2027. As some [commentators](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/20/macron-knows-finished-might-just-choose-resign/) have put it, “Macron knows he’s finished. He might just choose to resign.” > The idea is that, like General de Gaulle in 1969, he would prefer to resign grandly rather than endure a “cohabitation” with an opposition prime minister, as François Mitterrand did in 1986-88 with Jacques Chirac, and Chirac himself had to between 1997 and 2002 with the Socialist Lionel Jospin. ***Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?*** This question will resolve as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is no longer the French President at any point before 2027 for whatever reason. This question will resolve on the basis of [the official Élysée](https://www.elysee.fr/en/) or reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If Emmanuel Macron is still President on January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.

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NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dbought Ṁ50 of NO

Note that Metaculus is currently at 20%, which is already ridiculously high. Every French president has had to face turmoil. They just don’t resign. That’s not a thing. He’s also very young and healthy, so unlikely to die.

I’d put the probability at 5%.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dis predicting NO at 25%

@NicoDelon The only president to resign under the fifth republic was De Gaulle. He died a year later. Totally different context.

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