Will Germany leave the EU before 2040?
18
1kṀ772
2039
7%
chance

If the EU ceases to exist before 2040 this will resolve NA.

If the EU changes its name or form, the default assumption should be that this market applies to that 'new' group. If there is a mainstream debate or consensus outside of Manifold as to whether the new group is the EU in a new form or not, either myself or an arbitrator chosen by participants will determine whether to apply this question to it or to NA it.

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