Resolution criteria

Macron's second term is set to end in May 2027. The market resolves YES if Macron resigns from the presidency before January 1, 2027. The market resolves NO if he remains in office through December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Élysée Palace or French government sources.

Background

France faces a fragile political situation with a hung parliament where no party holds a majority. Macron has repeatedly said he will not resign, most recently reaffirming this commitment in August 2025. However, Édouard Philippe, Macron's first prime minister, has suggested the president should step down and call an early presidential election once the 2026 budget is adopted. The far left has asked for Macron's departure, though Marine Le Pen stopped short of calling for his resignation.

Considerations

If President Macron were to resign now, he would not be able to stand for re-election until 2032, just as if he served his full term until 2027, eliminating a potential strategic incentive for early resignation. The French constitution does not require presidential resignation following government defeats in parliament, giving Macron legal latitude to remain in office despite political pressure.