Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?
Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?
12
100Ṁ3492039
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Canada has become a member of the European Union before January 1st 2040. This also applies if a main successor to Canada joins a main successor to the EU before that date. “Strong evidence” may include formal accession treaties, official announcements by relevant governing bodies, or other clear confirmation that membership has been granted. If there is no such membership or evidence thereof by January 1st 2040, the market will resolve as NO.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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