Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party fails to secure a majority in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026 United States midterm elections (i.e., Republicans win or maintain majorities in both chambers).

This market resolves to NO if the Democratic Party wins a majority in at least one chamber of Congress (the House, the Senate, or both).

Resolution will be determined based on certified election results reported by major decision desks and official election trackings, such as the Associated Press and Ballotpedia. If the market creator intended a specific poll threshold or alternative definition for "destroying chances," the creator should edit these criteria to specify their intended metric.

Background

The 2026 United States midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate (including 33 regular elections and two special elections) are on the ballot. Late-breaking developments or high-impact political events occurring in the final weeks before Election Day—often referred to as "October surprises"—frequently influence marginal polling and turnout in competitive races.