Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve based on which political party wins majority control of the United States House of Representatives in the midterm elections held on November 3, 2026.

• An option (e.g., "Republican Party" or "Democratic Party") will resolve to YES if that party wins at least 218 voting seats out of the 435 up for election. All other options will resolve to NO.

• No Clear Majority / Tie-Breaker: If no single party wins 218 seats (for instance, due to independent or third-party representatives), the market will resolve to YES for the party that successfully organizes the House and elects its nominee as the Speaker of the House for the 120th Congress in January 2027.

• Source of Truth: The market will resolve using the official election results published by the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, or consensus calls by major national election decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ) once the outcome is mathematically settled.

• Delayed Outcome: If the results are delayed or heavily contested past the start of the next legislative term, the market will resolve based on the official outcome of the House Speaker vote on the floor of the House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress.

Background

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, during President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 congressional districts across the 50 states are contesting their seats. The midterm elections serve as a major national political referendum, with the party holding the majority in the House deciding the legislative agenda and holding significant power over federal budgets and oversight committees.