Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party wins fewer seats than the threshold required to maintain majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives (fewer than 218 seats in the standard 435-seat chamber), or if another party or coalition organizes the majority when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027.

This market resolves to NO if the Republican Party retains majority control by winning at least 218 seats (or otherwise organizes the majority for the 120th Congress).

Resolution will be determined primarily by official election results and consensus race calls by major news organizations (such as the Associated Press Decision Editor), or upon the official election of the Speaker of the House by a non-Republican majority for the 120th Congress. If control is delayed due to recounts or runoffs, resolution will wait until majority control of the chamber is definitively established.

Background

Midterm elections historically present headwinds for the sitting president's party in Congress. In the House of Representatives, 218 seats are required for an outright majority out of the 435 voting members. Control determines leadership posts, committee chairmanships, and the legislative agenda for the incoming Congress.