Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, the Republican Party maintains control of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.

Specifically, this means:

• The Republican Party wins at least 218 of the 435 voting seats in the House.

• Alternatively, if neither party secures 218 seats outright due to independents or third parties, this market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party successfully organizes the chamber and elects a Republican Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027.

• If the Democratic Party or any other non-Republican coalition wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber (electing a non-Republican Speaker), this market resolves to NO.

Sources and Timing:

• Temporary or projected results from major consensus media outlets (such as the Associated Press, NBC, CNN, and Fox News) may be used to resolve the market once a clear majority is called.

• In the event of a disputed or extremely close election, the final resolution will be determined by the official party control established when the 120th Congress is sworn in, as documented by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Background

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, during the mid-point of President Donald Trump’s second term. All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.

Heading into the 2026 midterms, Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Because 218 seats are required for a majority, Democrats only need a net gain of a few seats to flip control of the chamber. Midterm elections historically present a challenging environment for the sitting president's party, making the House majority highly competitive.