Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2400 UTC, a global far-right regime or political authority assumes power and directly causes prediction markets as a concept to become completely defunct and cease operating worldwide.

This market resolves to NO if:

• January 1, 2400 UTC arrives and prediction markets continue to exist and operate in any form globally.

• Prediction markets cease to exist for reasons other than the enforcement of a global far-right regime (e.g., general technological collapse, replacement by superior coordination mechanisms, or bans enacted by non-far-right governance).

If no objective global consensus or historical record exists by 2400 to verify the occurrence, the market resolves based on the prevailing consensus of available historical records at the time of resolution.

Background

Prediction markets use market mechanisms to aggregate information about future events. Historically, autocratic and totalitarian regimes have restricted independent information ecosystems, private financial trading, and decentralized forecasting tools. This market evaluates the long-term civilizational risk posed to the existence of prediction markets by potential global political consolidation under a far-right regime over a multi-century timeline.