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MANIFOLD
Will the global far-right alliances abolish and defunct all prediction markets before 2040?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ46
2039
69%
No, global far-right alliances will not achieve sufficient unified power to ban prediction markets.
50%
No, prediction markets will survive globally through decentralization and censorship resistance.
50%
No, prediction markets will be co-opted or regulated rather than completely abolished and defunct.
34%
Yes, globally coordinated far-right governments will ban all prediction markets by 2040.

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market where each added answer resolves independently:

  • Each answer corresponding to an action, entity, or condition will resolve YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, that condition is met according to credible international reporting, official government/treaty publications, or observable market operations. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

  • If an option specifies that all prediction markets are abolished and rendered defunct globally:

    • It resolves YES only if major public prediction market platforms (including centralized and decentralized platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, or their primary successors) are universally banned, blocked, or effectively shut down worldwide through coordinated international action, and no major legally operating or actively trading public prediction market survives.

    • If prediction markets continue operating in major jurisdictions, remain functional on decentralized protocols, or are merely regulated/restricted rather than comprehensively abolished, that option resolves NO.

  • Resolution relies on established global reporting (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press) or formal international/governmental regulatory documents.

  • If an added option is ambiguous or its criteria cannot be objectively verified, it will resolve based on consensus among credible news coverage, or the market creator may clarify the criteria before resolution.

Background

  • Prediction markets face varying legal frameworks worldwide, ranging from strict licensing and regulation (e.g., the CFTC in the United States) to outright bans on financial betting/gambling in certain countries, alongside borderless operations via decentralized protocols.

  • "Far-right alliances" commonly refers to informal or formal international networks of nationalist, conservative, or populist political parties and movements (such as the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament or CPAC international gatherings).

  • Abolishing all prediction markets worldwide would require either unprecedented global regulatory harmonization and enforcement across national boundaries or comprehensive censorship of both centralized operators and decentralized blockchain protocols.

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