Resolution criteria

• YES: Prior to January 1, 2100, prediction markets as a global concept cease to exist and operate worldwide, and this outcome is directly caused by the enforcement, bans, or policies of a global far-right regime (or a dominant global coalition of far-right authoritarian governments). To satisfy this condition, public prediction market platforms (including major decentralized, legal, or non-profit platforms) must be rendered globally defunct or outlawed as a result of far-right governance.

• NO: This market resolves NO if on January 1, 2100, prediction markets continue to exist and operate, or if prediction markets become defunct for reasons unrelated to a global far-right regime (such as general technological collapse, lack of user participation, non-ideological financial regulation, or actions by non-far-right governments).

• If the causality or the political classification of the governing regime is disputed, resolution will rely on consensus reporting from major international news organizations and recognized political science institutions. The market creator may clarify edge cases based on clear historical evidence.

Background

Prediction markets rely on financial or reputation-based incentives to aggregate distributed information on political, economic, and scientific events. Concerns about potential bans or shutdowns generally stem from financial gambling regulations, anti-speculation laws, or authoritarian control over information flow. Long-term forecasting on the political trajectory of the 21st century considers whether global governance structures will move toward extreme authoritarianism and how such regimes might treat information-aggregating platforms.