Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, all major prediction market platforms cease operations permanently as a direct causal result of actions, rulings, or enforcement orders issued by pseudo-legal, sovereign-citizen, or common-law "international tribunals."

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• For the purposes of this market, "all prediction markets" requires that every recognized, operational public prediction market platform (including but not limited to Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt) has become defunct, with none remaining operational.

• A shutdown qualifies only if credible mainstream reporting or official platform statements establish that the shutdown was directly compelled or caused by an extralegal or sovereign citizen entity operating as an unrecognized "international tribunal." Regulatory enforcement or shutdowns by recognized sovereign state authorities (such as the US CFTC, SEC, or national courts of recognized sovereign states) do not satisfy this condition.

• If at least one public prediction market remains active and operational on January 1, 2050, this market resolves to NO.

Background

The sovereign citizen movement and related pseudo-legal philosophies frequently establish self-constituted, extralegal bodies—variously styled as common-law grand juries, "tribunals," or international courts—that operate outside recognized municipal and international legal frameworks. Established legal systems and international bodies do not recognize the legal validity or enforcement jurisdiction of these entities.