Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve YES, NO, or N/A independently by or before December 31, 2039, at 11:59 PM ET.

• Precondition: The market conditions evaluate outcomes assuming unified or dominant Republican federal control ("all levels of government," typically understood as the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives). If Republicans do not maintain unified control across relevant federal branches over the period, options conditional on that premise may resolve N/A unless the market creator explicitly resolves them based on actual policy outcomes regardless of partisan control.

• Yes, all prediction markets will shut down completely before 2040: Resolves YES if all major CFTC-regulated event contract platforms (e.g., Kalshi, ForecastEx) and offshore/crypto-based prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) are forced to cease operations globally or within the United States due to blanket federal prohibitions or regulatory enforcement before 2040. Otherwise resolves NO.

• No, prediction markets will remain active and operational through 2040: Resolves YES if at least one major platform offering political or financial event contracts remains legally operational and accessible to U.S. participants (or broadly active globally) on December 31, 2039. Otherwise resolves NO.

• Prediction markets will transition entirely into state-regulated gambling entities: Resolves YES if federal regulatory preemption (under the Commodity Exchange Act) is dismantled or formally yielded, requiring prediction markets to be licensed and regulated under individual state sports wagering, gaming, or casino regulatory frameworks instead of federal oversight.

• Federal legislation will ban specific types of event contracts like elections and politics: Resolves YES if an act of Congress is enacted into law before January 1, 2040, explicitly prohibiting event contracts tied to public elections, political candidates, or government appointments nationwide.

• A Supreme Court ruling will permanently resolve the federal versus state jurisdiction conflict: Resolves YES if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a formal decision on the merits defining whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) preempts state gaming commissions and gambling statutes regarding retail event contracts.

Official sources of truth include federal statutes (congress.gov), Supreme Court slip opinions (supremecourt.gov), CFTC enforcement orders (cftc.gov), and public operational records of the relevant exchanges.

Background

Event contract platforms such as Kalshi and ForecastEx operate under CFTC oversight as designated contract markets (DCMs) pursuant to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). Following the September 2024 D.C. District Court decision in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, Kalshi was permitted to list congressional control contracts, leading to legal debates over whether state gambling regulators or the federal government hold primary jurisdiction over retail political contracts. Multiple states and regulators have weighed whether election-related contracts violate state anti-wagering statutes or constitute federally preempted financial derivatives.