Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, the national Democratic Party officially adopts an agenda to ban or abolish all prediction markets, or if every Democratic member of both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives co-sponsors or votes in favor of federal legislation that completely outlaws all prediction markets in the United States.

• Official adoption by the national Democratic Party is defined as an explicit plank or resolution included in the official Democratic National Convention (DNC) Party Platform calling for a total ban/abolition of all prediction markets.

• Legislative resolution requires a bill, resolution, or statutory package explicitly abolishing all event contracts/prediction markets (not merely restricting insider trading, sports contracts, or election-specific contracts) that receives affirmative support from 100% of voting or serving Democrats in both chambers of Congress.

• If at any point before January 1, 2050, at least one seated Democratic member of Congress publicly opposes a complete ban, votes against such a bill, or if no such party-wide unanimous platform or unanimous vote occurs by December 31, 2049, 11:59 PM UTC, the market resolves to NO.

• Resolution will be verified using official congressional records via Congress.gov or official platform releases from the Democratic National Committee.

• Note: The market creator may clarify or edit the threshold for defining "all Democrats plan to" if an alternate consensus interpretation is preferred.

Background

Federal scrutiny of prediction markets (such as Kalshi and Polymarket) has increased significantly, primarily focusing on election contracts, insider trading, and gaming regulations under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

While multiple Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills targeting political betting, sports-related event contracts, or participation by government officials—such as the STOP Corrupt Bets Act introduced by Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley—legislative efforts have generally distinguished between restricting specific high-risk contracts and completely dismantling CFTC-regulated event derivative markets. Complete, unanimous opposition across an entire political party to all forms of prediction markets remains historically rare in financial regulation debates.