Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple-choice question with the precondition that the Democratic Party achieves unified control of the U.S. federal government (the presidency, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House of Representatives) at some point prior to January 1, 2040.

• Precondition (N/A clause): If the Democratic Party does not hold concurrent unified control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives at any time between market creation and January 1, 2040, the market will resolve to N/A.

• If the precondition is met, each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on outcomes occurring prior to January 1, 2040:

  • "Yes, all prediction markets will shut down due to federal legislation or strict regulatory bans enacted by a fully Democratic government." Resolves to YES if, during or following a period of unified Democratic control, federal statutes or agency actions effectively cause the cessation of all major regulated and unregulated prediction markets accessible to users, such that no prominent centralized or decentralized prediction markets remain operational. Otherwise, resolves to NO.

  • "No, prediction markets will continue to operate globally or adapt to domestic legal frameworks despite a unified Democratic government." Resolves to YES if prediction markets continue to operate legally, under modified regulatory regimes (e.g., CFTC compliance), or via international jurisdictions outside U.S. enforcement. Otherwise, resolves to NO.

  • "No, decentralized and blockchain-based prediction markets will remain active and resistant to government shutdowns." Resolves to YES if permissionless, blockchain-based protocols (e.g., Polymarket or similar decentralized smart contract platforms) continue to function and maintain active trading volume despite domestic U.S. bans or restrictions. Otherwise, resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined by documented federal actions recorded on Congress.gov or official agency records (such as CFTC.gov), alongside public operational status and on-chain activity of prediction market platforms.

Background

In the United States, prediction markets and event contract platforms are regulated primarily under the Commodity Exchange Act by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The regulatory landscape has seen active legal scrutiny, including CFTC rulemaking proposals concerning contracts tied to political events and elections, as well as federal court litigation involving platforms such as Kalshi and PredictIt. Decentralized platforms utilizing public blockchains and smart contracts often operate without centralized order matching, presenting distinct jurisdictional and enforcement challenges compared to centralized, domestically registered exchanges.