Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, the Republican Party officially adopts a platform, or every sitting Republican member of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate publicly sponsors, co-sponsors, or officially votes in favor of legislation or an official party policy that seeks to completely ban or abolish all prediction markets (event contracts/information markets) in the United States.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• "Prediction markets" refers to platforms offering event-based contracts (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt).

• The requirement of "all Republicans" requires either 100% consensus among sitting federal Republican lawmakers on an abolition measure or official adoption into the national Republican Party platform. If any sitting Republican member of Congress opposes such a ban or advocates for legalizing/regulating prediction markets, the criteria for "all" is not met.

• Official legislative action can be tracked via Congress.gov.

Background

Prediction markets in the United States operate under a mix of regulatory frameworks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and ForecastEx, while having previously sought rules to limit contracts on elections and political outcomes.

Views on prediction markets among political figures do not cleanly align along standard party lines. While some lawmakers have raised consumer protection or electoral integrity concerns, others—particularly within conservative and libertarian-leaning legal and economic circles—have defended prediction markets on free-speech grounds, free-market principles, and their utility as forecasting tools.