tested negative!!
Update Saturday (9am PDT) - First negative test. Will take another test tonight - if it's also negative, this market resolves YES.
Update late Friday (6pm PDT) - Symptoms are gone, took another test and it's as negative as possible while still being positive, I expect this to go YES tomorrow.
UPDATE FRIDAY OCT 28 - I have redeveloped symptoms, mild runny nose and coughing. Just took another COVID test, though, and it's a very-faint positive.
This question resolves YES if I get at least two negative antigen tests by noon on Monday, and NO otherwise. The two negative antigen tests must be conducted at least 12 hours apart from each other, and be taken at least as strictly as manufacturer instructions recommend.
I developed symptoms on Friday afternoon (Oct 21) and took multiple rapid antigen tests from different brands on Saturday morning, all of which came up positive very quickly/had thick and bright red lines.
I've tested at least daily since then, and basically stopped having symptoms by Monday morning—but continue to test positive on rapid antigen tests, with the positive result showing up very quickly. I have not had symptoms since then but tested positive today (Thursday).
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This question resolves YES if I get at least two negative antigen tests by noon on Monday, and NO otherwise. The two negative antigen tests must be conducted at least 12 hours apart from each other, and be taken at least as strictly as manufacturer instructions recommend.
These resolution conditions mean you need two tests 12 hours apart
@ampdot I think the intent is for that to count here as stopped having Covid (and therefore YES), even if it later rebounds.
@DevanshPandey Anecdotal data: I had faint positive tests for 5 days in a row before it completely disappeared. The last 3 of those days I considered "very faint".
@jack You should be buying no shares if you believe a faint line will remain at Oct 30.
@ampdot My current prediction is 75% - it was 65% from my previous comment, and increased because of seeing the very faint line.
So far the most informative study I found was this one, which provides a base rate of roughly 54% here.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.19.22274968v1.full-text
Among symptomatic persons, an estimated 80% (95% CI: 76%-84%) and 35% (95%CI: 30%-40%) remained positive on day 5 and 10 respectively. Among persons asymptomatic at testing, an estimated 49% (95% CI: 34-55%) and 19% (95% CI, 5%-42%) remained positive on day 5 and 10.
See figure 2 for data for positivity at days 4 through 14. To get 2 negative antigen tests by noon Monday, the first negative would have to be Sunday night, which is just over 9 days from symptom onset. Figure 2B shows a 45.7% probability of still testing positive on day 9, and 1 minus that is 54%.
However, the numbers in this study are very surprising to me. In https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-days-will-my-covid-infecti#EURz4PrlBGs8QAVTe5Fy I did some research, where I found studies reporting these summary statistics: duration of Omicron infection (counting from first detection) is about 10 days mean, 5 days median. Omicron symptoms lasted 7 days on average.
But the first study I linked above shows 80% positive on day 5 among symptomatic people, and 65% overall including both symptomatic and asymptomatic which is far different from the 50% implied by the median duration being 5 days. So not sure what's going on there. Therefore I adjust the estimated positivity rates down somewhat from the first study.
Additionally, I think your symptoms ending after 3 days is lower than the average. This article https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o922 says Omicron symptoms lasted 7 days on average. So based on that I think it makes sense to increase the probability that your positive tests end earlier.
Overall, I'll predict 65% here right now. My prior here was something like 80% so this is a big difference based on that one study. So finding more studies would probably help improve the forecast substantially.