Background

Wannon is a federal electoral division in Victoria, Australia, that has been a Liberal Party stronghold since 1955. The seat is currently held by Dan Tehan, who has represented the electorate since 2010. Alex Dyson, an independent candidate, has been gaining significant momentum over the past two elections:

• In the 2019 election, Dyson received 10.39% of the vote

• In the 2022 election, Dyson increased his vote share to 19.29%, helping reduce the Liberal margin to just 3.9%

The next Australian federal election must be held on or before September 27, 2025. The political landscape in Wannon has become increasingly competitive, with Dyson's community-focused campaign gaining traction against the long-term Liberal incumbent.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Alex Dyson defeats Dan Tehan and wins the seat of Wannon in the next Australian federal election. It will resolve to NO if Dan Tehan retains the seat or if another candidate (not Dyson) wins the seat.

The market will be resolved based on the official election results as declared by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

Considerations

Several factors could influence this contest:

• Labor has announced a new candidate, Fiona Mackenzie, whose performance may impact the distribution of preferences

• Voter turnout and preference flows will be crucial in this increasingly marginal seat

• National political trends and issues may influence local voting patterns

• If either Dyson or Tehan withdraws from the race before the election, the market will still resolve based on whether Dyson wins the seat (YES) or not (NO)