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MANIFOLD
Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
3
Ṁ1kṀ296
2028
37%
chance

The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028. If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.

Otherwise NO.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

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