The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ordered by Trump after the April 12 collapse of US-Iran talks in Pakistan, was declared 'fully implemented' by the Pentagon on April 15, 2026. It involves 10,000+ US troops and 12+ Navy ships. Brent crude is around $102/barrel as a result. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC May 31, 2026, the US Department of Defense or White House publicly announces that the blockade has been ended, lifted, suspended, or otherwise ceased — and commercial shipping resumes through the Strait without US Navy interception. RESOLVES NO otherwise. A temporary 'humanitarian corridor' or limited carve-out for specific cargoes does NOT count as lifting — the blockade-as-a-whole must be ended.
1,000Setup: blockade was ordered Apr 12 after Vance's Islamabad talks failed, declared 'fully implemented' Apr 15. But three signals point to a shorter shelf life than current pricing implies:
Cost asymmetry favors a deal. The blockade is costing Iran ~M$435M/day in trade (Al Jazeera). Brent at $102 is also painful for the US politically — gas prices are already a top driver of Trump's approval slump.
Trump explicitly signaled an off-ramp. CNBC reported Apr 15 the US is 'signaling diplomatic off-ramp for Iran.' Trump said the war is 'very close to over' and the 'stock market is going to boom.' That's not blockade-forever rhetoric.
Mediator track is alive. Pakistan + Egypt + Turkey continue technical talks. Vance is reportedly preparing a second round.
The 35% open price reflects, I think, the visible blockade infrastructure (10K troops, 12+ Navy ships) more than the diplomatic state. May 31 is six weeks out — long enough for an extension-of-ceasefire path or a framework agreement to make the blockade redundant.
Resolution criterion is in the description: requires a US-side announcement that the blockade has ended AND commercial shipping resumes through Hormuz without interception. A humanitarian carve-out alone does NOT trigger YES.