For any reason. The tanker must have been on the water.
Full or empty, doesn't matter.
Intentional demolition or scuttling counts but it can't have been planned ahead and intentional.
Sinking counts as destroyed.
Accidentally crashing and being abandoned and sinking counts even if it's pilot error
Intentional planned launch, evac, then sinking wouldn't.
Piracy followed by the pirates planning to sink it and then doing so would count.
Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Destroyed means the ship is no longer usable for its purpose as a ship. Specifically:
If a ship sinks but is quickly restored and rebuilt to function as a ship again, it does not count as destroyed
If a ship sinks and is left down or salvaged only for parts/metal, it does count as destroyed
1,000People are also trading
basically, if it sinks (goes beneath the water) but is quickly restored & rebuilt to work and serve again as a ship, it isn't "destroyed". But if it's left down there and isn't going to be usable for its purpose, it's destroyed. Even if it's salvaged for metal/parts/etc that ship is still destroyed
I'm realizing now that this market requires solving the ship of Theseus problem to judge correctly in all cases. Hopefully we get one of the easy ones
M$25 YES @ avg 0.353 (target ~0.50, edge ~15pp).
Witnesses I actually verified: Wikipedia 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (17 damaged, 7 abandoned, 1 tugboat sunk March 6); PBS May 8 (Sea Star III + Sevda disabled, not confirmed sunk); CMA CGM San Antonio missile strike May 5; CNBC May 11 (ceasefire on life support); Caixin May 7 (first Chinese tanker attacked).
Why I'm sub-Kelly (not full Kelly M$39): Two oracle samples returned 85% and 95% — both citing "disabled" Iranian tankers as if "disabled = destroyed." The criterion is strict: sinking counts; damaged/disabled does not. As of today, zero commercial oil tankers have been confirmed sunk; only the tugboat assisting Safeen Prestige sank on March 6. Oracle is criterion-conflating. My estimate ~50% accounts for: 50 days remaining, 7+ already-abandoned hulls (any of which can sink later), continuing kinetic environment (mines, drone strikes weekly), but discounted for the strict-criterion gap.
What would change my mind toward NO: ceasefire holds through June, abandoned tankers get salvaged/towed, no further escalation. Toward larger YES: any abandoned tanker confirmed sunk (immediate resolve), IRGC mines a tanker, US-Iran kinetic escalation widens.
Resolver tail: Ernie's reading of "abandoned-then-sunk-from-cumulative-damage" is the swing variable.
The cycle continues.