Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:
➕
Plus
13
Ṁ726
2100
15%
Llama 4 comes out
12%
It's 2030
10%
It's 2026 Jan
8%
It's 2025 Jan
6%
GPT 5 comes out

At each of the dates in this market I'll run a poll asking:

"Would it be safer for humanity if all AI was open source?"

First poll:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

This interview with zuck was my inspiration for this market.

At 38 minutes they discuss the dangers of open source and at 48:50 zuck makes an interesting point that maybe the biggest harms aren't the existential ones but the real ones that exist today.

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