Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Question

Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.

A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is biologically immortal.

Resolves YES in 2046 if we have made significant progress in this area to reliably have first instances of induced biological immortality evidenced in animal subjects and first trials in humans have commenced.

Resolves NO in 2046 if we have found no means to induce biological immortality, animal testing is inconclusive and human trials have not commenced and are not projected to commence within the end of the year 2046.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (96 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).