If the following metaculus market resolves positively before the end of 2050:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
Then this market here resolves the same as this one:
https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi
Otherwise, the market here resolves N/A.
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@k1234567890y Or the takeoff is slow enough and AGI is achieved late enough that it simply isn't cured pre-2050. E.g. 20-30 year timelines until 30% GDP growth, and curing aging being relatively harder than expected could deliver a no resolution.
Still, all of that put together is less than a 50% chance imo, in large part because I have AGI timelines closer to ~5 years, and because I find significant software only RSI fairly likely. Also because aging is very unlikely out of reach for ASI in the long term.
@AnishaZaveri however they're defining it in this market:
https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi
