By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
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2051
47%
chance

If the following metaculus market resolves positively before the end of 2050:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/

Then this market here resolves the same as this one:
https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi

Otherwise, the market here resolves N/A.

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well

I personally feel the notion that "AGI = cure for aging" ignores some unignorable possibilities: AGI could end up showing that aging is incurable in humans, or aging may turn out to be so complex that even ASI will never solve it.

What is a cure to aging defined as?

@AnishaZaveri however they're defining it in this market:
https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
28% chance.

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