well

I personally feel the notion that "AGI = cure for aging" ignores some unignorable possibilities: AGI could end up showing that aging is incurable in humans, or aging may turn out to be so complex that even ASI will never solve it.

@k1234567890y Or the takeoff is slow enough and AGI is achieved late enough that it simply isn't cured pre-2050. E.g. 20-30 year timelines until 30% GDP growth, and curing aging being relatively harder than expected could deliver a no resolution.

Still, all of that put together is less than a 50% chance imo, in large part because I have AGI timelines closer to ~5 years, and because I find significant software only RSI fairly likely. Also because aging is very unlikely out of reach for ASI in the long term.

@DavidHiggs Well, the common transhumanist assertion that "AGI/ASI = a cure for aging within years" is just a hypothesis, nothing more or less than this.

By the way, speaking of aging and AGI/ASI, I am starting to have a feeling: there's a chance that AGI and ASI will prove that aging as it is now is actually the best solution for maximizing lifespan.

What is a cure to aging defined as?

@AnishaZaveri however they're defining it in this market:
https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

28% chance.