Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?
Basic
76
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2047
17%
chance

Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.

A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is biologically immortal.

Resolves YES in 2046 if we have made significant progress in this area to reliably have first instances of induced biological immortality evidenced in animal subjects and first trials in humans have commenced.

Resolves NO in 2046 if we have found no means to induce biological immortality, animal testing is inconclusive and human trials have not commenced and are not projected to commence within the end of the year 2046.

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Forever is impossible, you should revise the market to specify a time-span, or create a new one.

@JamesColiar forever is possible

@PhoAI heat death of the universe, quantum fluctuations, ... This market is indeed underspecified, so different people will interpret it differently.

@Entropy Reading the explanation I understand that the probability of dying at any given age is the same as that at every other age (with the exception perhaps of childhood). It seems hard to interpret it any other way. However this does not mean people would live forever: they would have a half life, like radioactive decay.

Forever as in consciousness as ‘me’ being ‘me’ preserved in human body form that feels like ‘me’ as long as I choose, death becoming an option and not the norm.

predicts YES

@BB sorry I hadn't seen the edit history and I can't delete this comment. Nevermind.

Forever is impossible, perhaps 200 years or a thousand years, but forever is not possible.

Forever, as in literal infinity? So reversing entropy and surviving the projected heat death of the universe?