Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

1kṀ18k

2047

28%

chance

ALL

Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.

A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is biologically immortal.

Resolves YES in 2046 if we have made significant progress in this area to reliably have first instances of induced biological immortality evidenced in animal subjects and first trials in humans have commenced.

Resolves NO in 2046 if we have found no means to induce biological immortality, animal testing is inconclusive and human trials have not commenced and are not projected to commence within the end of the year 2046.

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This would require dramatically successful breakthroughs immediately. Come bet on one: https://manifold.markets/ArunJohnson/will-300-lifespan-extension-in-roti?r=QXJ1bkpvaG5zb24

Will 300% lifespan extension in rotifers replicate?

20% chance. A 2010 paper published in PLoS One found the lifespan of rotifers could be extended >300% by exposing them to a synthetic antioxidant (indole-3-propionamide -- IPAM). Mean lifespan of the control group was 24.6 days, versus 90.5 days for the group living in media with 30 mM IPAM. As far as I can tell, this result has not been replicated, despite it's alleged extraordinary success as a longevity intervention. I am considering synthesizing IPAM and attempting to replicate significant lifespan extension in rotifers. Conditional on me carrying out a replication attempt, will I find the experimental group (treated with 30 mM IPAM) has at least 200% the lifespan of the control group? The closing date may be extended. I will answer questions in the comments & update the description with notable clarifications.

Forever is impossible, you should revise the market to specify a time-span, or create a new one.

@JamesColiar forever is possible

@PhoAI heat death of the universe, quantum fluctuations, ... This market is indeed underspecified, so different people will interpret it differently.

@Entropy Reading the explanation I understand that the probability of dying at any given age is the same as that at every other age (with the exception perhaps of childhood). It seems hard to interpret it any other way. However this does not mean people would live forever: they would have a half life, like radioactive decay.

Forever as in consciousness as ‘me’ being ‘me’ preserved in human body form that feels like ‘me’ as long as I choose, death becoming an option and not the norm.