Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for any movie that reaches a worldwide box office gross of $1 billion USD or higher and was released by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using verified box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources. Each answer resolves independently—multiple movies can resolve YES if they each cross the $1 billion threshold. If any movie is still in theaters in 2027 and hits the 1 billion mark next year, but was released in 2026, it still resolves YES.

In 2025, only four movies surpassed $1 billion: "Zootopia 2," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Lilo & Stitch," and China's "Ne Zha 2.”