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MANIFOLD
Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?
16
Ṁ1kṀ3.5k
Dec 31
15%
Digger
20%
Disclosure Day
17%
Dog Stars
84%
Dune: Messiah
17%
Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol
13%
Focker-in-Law
13%
Forgotten Island
8%
Godzilla Minus Zero
43%
Hexed
24%
Insidious: The Bleeding World
61%
Jumanji Open Would
60%
Masters of the Universe
51%
Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)
69%
Moana (live action)
24%
Resident Evil
24%
Scary Movie 6
17%
Street Fighter
20%
Supergirl
20%
The Cat in the Hat
24%
The End of Oak Street

Resolution criteria

  • Each answer resolves YES if that film’s domestic (US+Canada) 3‑day opening weekend gross (Fri–Sun) will be between 50M and $100M in the 2026 US Box Office. Source of record: the “Opening” figure on Box Office Mojo for each film; if BOM is unavailable or clearly erroneous, will use The Numbers as backup.. Films that do not open domestically in 2026 resolve NO, (boxofficemojo.com, the-numbers.com)

  • Opening weekends that follow Wednesday/Thursday starts are still measured Fri–Sun; Thursday previews folded into Friday are fine. Limited-then-wide platforming is rare for these titles; we will still use the BOM “Opening” (first Fri–Sun of release). If a film opens on Dec 31, 2026, we still count its first Fri–Sun weekend even if that spans into Jan 2027.

Resolution criteria

Each answer resolves YES if that film's domestic (US+Canada) 3-day opening weekend gross (Fri–Sun) falls between $50M and $100M in 2026. The source of record is the "Opening" figure on Box Office Mojo; if unavailable or clearly erroneous, The Numbers serves as backup.

Opening weekends following Wednesday/Thursday starts are still measured Fri–Sun; Thursday previews folded into Friday are acceptable. Limited-then-wide platforming is rare for these titles; the BOM "Opening" (first Fri–Sun of release) will be used. If a film opens on December 31, 2026, its first Fri–Sun weekend counts even if it spans into January 2027.

Films that do not open domestically in 2026 resolve NO.

Background

The Devil Wears Prada 2 is set for May 1, 2026, reuniting the original cast. Avengers: Doomsday and Dune Messiah will release on the same day, December 18, 2026, creating a major box office clash. The Mandalorian and Grogu is scheduled for release on May 22, 2026. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is set for April 1, 2026. Lee Cronin's The Mummy is set for April 17, 2026, and Resident Evil, directed by Zach Cregger, releases September 18, 2026.

Considerations

The $50M–$100M range targets mid-tier openings—above typical limited releases but below major tentpole performances. Many franchises and sequels on this list have unpredictable box office trajectories. Recent market volatility means even established properties can underperform or exceed expectations significantly. Release date clustering (particularly in May and December) may fragment audiences across multiple high-profile releases.

This description was generated by AI.

  • Update 2026-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer option previously titled Flowervale Street has been renamed. The old title was Flowervale Street.

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@delfinasu please resolve mortal kombat 2

@delfinasu old title: Flowervale Street

New title: The End of Oak Street