MANIFOLD
Which movies will earn more than $250M at the 2026 US Box Office?
7
Ṁ450Ṁ228
Dec 31
67%
Avengers: Doomsday
50%
Disclosure Day
60%
Dune: Messiah
50%
Hexed
50%
Hoppers
50%
Jumanji Last Level
50%
Michael
76%
Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)
59%
Moana (live action)
50%
Project Hail Mary
72%
Spiderman Brand New Day
55%
Supergirl
50%
The Devil Wears Prada 2
60%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
59%
The Mandalorian and Grogu
50%
The Odyssey
83%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
76%
Toy Story 5

Resolution criteria

Each answer resolves YES if that film's domestic (US+Canada) box office gross exceeds $250M by the end of 2026.

Resolution source: Box Office Mojo; if unavailable or clearly erroneous, The Numbers will serve as backup.

Films that do not open domestically in 2026 resolve NO.

Background

The domestic box office is forecasted to hit $9 billion in 2026, though many of the movie business's biggest franchises are showing signs of oversaturation or fatigue. Family films and video game adaptations proved irresistible to audiences in 2025, with "A Minecraft Movie," "Lilo & Stitch," and "Zootopia 2" being the three highest-grossing Hollywood productions.

2026 features several major tentpoles: The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping releases November 20, 2026, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is inspired by the Nintendo Wii title, and Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled for December 18, 2026. Toy Story 5 confronts the reality that children would rather play with screens than dolls, and Woody and Buzz needn't worry about box office grosses.

Considerations

Reaching $250M domestically is a significant threshold—only major franchises and event films typically achieve this.

This description was generated by AI.

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