What will be the movie with the greatest opening weekend in the US in 2026? (FSS)
3
225Ṁ60
2026
46%
Avengers: Doomsday
12%
Dune: Messiah
5%
Minions 3
5%
Other
11%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
5%
Super Mario World
5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu
5%
The Odyssey
5%
Toy Story 5

Resolves according to which movie Box Office Mojo lists as the #1 OW (opening weekend) film in the United States in 2026 (FSS: clasic Friday to Sunday).

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves to the single film with the highest domestic Opening Weekend (Fri–Sun only) for movies first released in calendar year 2026, as reported by Box Office Mojo (“Opening” column). Use Box Office Mojo’s 2026 domestic year page, sorted by Opening, and/or the winning film’s release page. Thursday previews count toward Friday per Mojo; four‑day holiday frames are still evaluated on Fri–Sun. Ties resolve to whichever title Box Office Mojo lists above the other at resolution time. Source: Box Office Mojo 2026 domestic year page. (boxofficemojo.com)

Background

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day — Sony/Marvel, officially dated July 31, 2026. (marvel.com)

  • The Mandalorian & Grogu — Lucasfilm/Disney, dated May 22, 2026. (theverge.com, en.wikipedia.org)

  • Toy Story 5 — Pixar/Disney, dated June 19, 2026. (theverge.com, en.wikipedia.org)

  • Illumination/Nintendo’s Super Mario sequel (often rumored as “Super Mario World”) — dated April 3, 2026; the “World” title has appeared in press but isn’t officially locked. (nintendo.com, theverge.com)

  • Minions 3 — Illumination/Universal, dated July 1, 2026. (awn.com)

  • Avengers: Doomsday — Marvel/Disney, dated December 18, 2026. (screendaily.com, en.wikipedia.org)

  • The Odyssey — Christopher Nolan/Universal, dated July 17, 2026. (screendaily.com)

  • Dune: Part Three (aka “Dune: Messiah”) — widely reported for December 18, 2026; treat as tentative pending studio confirmation. (people.com)

Considerations

  • Mid‑week openings don’t help FSS: e.g., Minions 3 opens Wednesday (July 1), but only Fri–Sun counts toward Opening Weekend here. (boxofficemojo.com)

  • Release calendars shift frequently; use the linked Box Office Mojo year page at resolution time rather than earlier schedules. (boxofficemojo.com)

  • For Mario context: the 2023 film’s domestic FSS opening was $146.36M, illustrating the sequel’s upside in April. (boxofficemojo.com)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy